BATANINA I.A., LAVRIKOVA A.A., SHUMILOVA O.E. Determinants and Barriers to the Development of the Integration Potential of the Image of the Future of Russia
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2025.5.16
Irina A. Batanina,
Doctor of Sciences (Politics), Professor, Director of the Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tula State University, Prosp. Lenina, 92, 300012 Tula, Russian Federation,
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0478-8312
Anastasia A. Lavrikova,
Doctor of Sciences (Politics), Associate Professor, Professor, Department of Sociology and Political Science, Tula State University, Prosp. Lenina, 92, 300012 Tula, Russian Federation,
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3364-9733
Olga E. Shumilova,
Candidate of Sciences (Politics), Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Political Science, Tula State University, Prosp. Lenina, 92, 300012 Tula, Russian Federation,
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2448-4084
Abstract. Introduction. This study identifies a system of factors for the development of the integration potential of the ideal image of the future Russian society, which addresses a significant gap in modern political science. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the use of a multidimensional analytical model developed by the authors to identify structural dissonances between the ideal, real, and declared images of the future at the micro-, meso-, and macro-levels. Methods and materials. The research is based on a comparative analysis of indepth interviews with representatives of the expert community (including heads of departments of regional government bodies, business structures, and mass media) and ordinary citizens of the Central Federal District and the Southern Federal District. The choice of the two districts is justified by the specifics of their sociocultural profiles, historical development trajectories, and geopolitical status, which allows for a more detailed analysis of regional differences in perceptions of the future. Analysis. It is noted that the vector of perception of the country’s future is positive; however, there is fragmentation and stereotyping associated with the dominance of retro-orientations in the mechanism of forming ideas about the future, which entails a narrowing of the planning horizon. It is proven that key factors limiting the functionality of the vision of the country’s development prospects, and consequently differentiating society; include lack of social experience, status characteristics, and place of residence (socio-cultural characteristics of the region). The study reveals significant differences between elite and mass groups, as well as between generations. Results. Experts demonstrate a more complex, cognitively rich perception, while mass consciousness tends towards short-term planning and personalization of power. In high-risk conditions, the authors conclude that there is a need to form unambiguous interpretations of key evaluative categories in the information agenda at the federal and regional levels. This will help minimize the fragmentation of public space and enhance the integration potential of Russia’s image of the future. Authors’ contribution. I.A. Batanina – conceptualization, research design, supervision, and final approval of the manuscript. A.A. Lavrikova – methodology, development of research instruments, data curation, formal analysis, and writing – original draft. O.E. Shumilova – investigation, data collection, formal analysis of literature, writing – review and editing. Funding. The article was prepared as part of the work in accordance with the State Assignment № FEWG-2023-0004.
Key words: image of the future, ideal image, mechanism of forming the image of the future, integration potential, information agenda, retro-orientations, value system.
Citation. Batanina I.A., Lavrikova A.A., Shumilova O.E. Determinants and Barriers to the Development of the Integration Potential of the Image of the Future of Russia. Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 4. Istoriya. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [Science Journal of Volgograd State University. History. Area Studies. International Relations], 2025, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 199-209. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2025.5.16.
Determinants and Barriers to the Development of the Integration Potential of the Image of the Future of Russia by Batanina I.A., Lavrikova A.A., Shumilova O.E. is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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