DZHOROBEKOVA A.E., TROITSKIY E.F., YUN S.M., TIMOSHENKO A.G. Regional Security in Central Asia After the Return of the Taliban to Power: Challenges and Threats, Scenarios

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2023.3.17

Ainur E. Dzhorobekova

Candidate of Sciences (History), Professor, Head of the Department of International Relations and Law,

Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic named after K. Dikambaev,

Erkindik Boulevard, 36, 720040 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4370-0149

Evgeny F. Troitskiy

Doctor of Sciences (History), Associate Professor, Professor,

Department of World Politics, National Research Tomsk State University,

Prosp. Lenina, 36, 634050 Tomsk, Russian Federation

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6489-7193

Sergey M. Yun

Candidate of Sciences (History), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of World Politics,

National Research Tomsk State University,

Prosp. Lenina, 36, 634050 Tomsk, Russian Federation

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6166-1716

Alexey G. Timoshenko

Candidate of Science (History), Associate Professor,

Department of World Politics, National Research Tomsk State University,

Prosp. Lenina, 36, 634050 Tomsk, Russian Federation

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6860-3778


Abstract. Introduction. The article focuses on reconstructing the major parameters of the complex of challenges and threats to post-Soviet Central Asia regional security that has emerged in the wake of or in direct connection with the radical change of the situation in Afghanistan after August 2021. These challenges and threats have developed across several functional and territorial dimensions and require a comprehensive analysis followed by the building of scenarios for their evolution.

Methods and materials. The research relies on the regional security complex theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever. The methodological toolkit includes external indirect observation, political descriptive and historical genetic methods, scenario building. The research materials include official statements, news briefs, expert opinions, periodicals, academic papers.

Analysis. The authors have analyzed the geostrategic, regional-strategic, regional-economic, and regional-societal dimensions of the challenges and threats to Central Asian regional security generated by the changes in Afghanistan and have built scenarios of their evolution. The major geostrategic challenge is the exacerbation of U.S. – Chinese contradictions centered on the influence of the Taliban factions. The key regional-strategic threat is the risk of the Afghan conflict spilling over into Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. The regional-economic challenges include the risks of blocking trans-Afghan transport, pipeline, and electricity transmission projects. The regional-societal risks consist of the dissemination of radical Islamist ideologies from Afghanistan throughout Central Asia. The two basic scenarios of the regional security evolution are inertia or a resumption of a full-scale civil war in Afghanistan.

Results. The authors have worked out sets of recommendations for regional policymakers and the intergovernmental bodies whose functions include maintaining security and stability in Central Asia. Authors’ contribution. A.E. Dzhorobekova has developed the general concept of the article and organized the research. E.F. Troitskiy has focused on the analysis of threats and challenges to regional security. S.M. Yun has developed scenarios for regional security situations. A.G. Timoshenko has formulated the relevant recommendations.

Key words: Central Asia, Tajikistan, USA, Russia, regional security, Afghanistan, Taliban, scenarios.

Citation. Dzhorobekova A.E., Troitskiy E.F., Yun S.M., Timoshenko A.G. Regional Security in Central Asia After the Return of the Taliban to Power: Challenges and Threats, Scenarios. Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 4. Istoriya. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [Science Journal of Volgograd State University. History. Area Studies. International Relations], 2023, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 187-196. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2023.3.17.

Лицензия Creative Commons

Regional Security in Central Asia After the Return of the Taliban to Power: Challenges and Threats, Scenarios by Dzhorobekova A.E., Troitskiy E.F., Yun S.M., Timoshenko A.G. is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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