Вестник Волгоградского государственного университета. Серия 4: История. Регионоведение. Международные отношения1998-99382312-870410.15688/jvolsu4.2024.1.16OtherПроблемы демократического управления в Латинской АмерикеThe Problems of Democratic Governance in Latin AmericaМартинес ЛильоПедро АнтониоMartínez LilloPedro A.pedro.martinez@uam.es0000-0003-3396-4626АркосХавьер КастроArcosJavier Castrojavier.castro@ugm.cl0000-0002-0052-6825Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Madrid, Spain)Автономный университет Мадрида (г. Мадрид, Испания)Universidad Gabriela Mistral (Santiago, Chile)Университет Габриэлы Мистраль (г. Сантьяго, Чили)110320242911801921512202313092023https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/CC BY 4.0

Введение. В статье рассмотрены современные проблемы управления в Латинской Америке. Показано, что кризисы, ослабляющие институциональную стабильность в регионе, вызваны завышенными ожиданиями граждан из-за популистских политических заявлений в ходе избирательных кампаний. Методы и материалы. Методология исследования основывается на теории демократического транзита Леонардо Мор лино. Цель работы – показать пять стадий эрозии демократии, опираясь на классическую методологию Морлино. Анализ показывает: 1) высокий уровень недовольства по отношению к политическим классам; 2) риск новых волн популизма и авторитаризма; 3) негативное влияние низких экономических показателей после пандемии; 4) снижение уровня безопасности, рост насилия и организованной преступности; 5) проблемы в достижении целей региональной интеграции и глобального влияния. Результаты. Ситуация в Латинской Америке высвечивает проблемы в ее демократическом управлении, которые заслуживают внимательного изучения для выработки политических рекомендаций. Ключевой проблемой управления для стран Латинской Америки в последние пятьдесят лет является снижение уровня доверия избирателей из-за дискредитации демократических институтов в результате безответственных действий политиков-популистов. Вклад авторов. Педро Мартинес Лильо определил основную концепцию статьи, а также сформулировал основные результаты исследования; Хавьер Кастро Аркос подготовил структурную композицию и разработал методологические основы исследования.

Introduction. The article presents the contemporary problems facing governance in Latin America. The paper demonstrates that the fissures that weaken institutional and democratic stability in the region respond to a set of aspects subordinate to the crisis of expectations regarding the permanent promise of economic development. Methods and materials. The research problem was based on Leonardo Morlino’s theory of democratic unanchoring. We indicate that the objective of the work is to show five explanatory variables of the erosion of democracy, based on the historian’s classic documentary methodology. Analysis. Fundamentally, it shows 1) the high level of disaffection and discomfort with the political classes; 2) the risk of a new wave of populism and authoritarianism; 3) the implications of poor economic performance post-pandemic; 4) the repercussions of high rates of insecurity, violence, and organized crime; and 5) the problems in achieving regional integration and relevant global participation. Results. The picture of the Latin American situation raises critical knots in its democratic governance, which deserve to be reviewed in depth in order to recognize relevant lines of action for researchers, decision-makers, and public policy managers. The answer to the problems of democratic governance in Latin America can be found in the thesis of political, economic, and social delegitimization in the processes of lack of efficiency in the administration of the democratic regime in the last fifty years, beyond the factors of historical inheritance or global conjuncture. Authors’ contributions. Pedro Martínez Lillo determined the basic concept of the article as well as formulated and analyzed the main results of the study; Javier Castro Arcos prepared the structural composition of the study and analyzed the methodological foundations of the study.

Латинская Америкадемократическое управлениедемократияпопулизмполитическая нестабильностьLatin Americademocratic governancedemocracypopulismpolitical instabilityAcemoglu D., Robinson J. Por Qué Fracasan Los Países: los Orígenes del Poder, la Prosperidad y la Pobreza. Barcelona, Ediciones Deusto, Grupo Planeta, 2012. 528 p.Albarracín J. Crimen organizado en América Latina. Bogotá, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), 2023. 22 p.Bartolomé M. Terrorism and Organized Crime in South America. Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE) Research Paper, 2019. 52 p. URL: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_investig/2019/DIEEEINV022019TerrorismoSudamerica.pdfBitar S., Máttar J., Medina J. El Gran Giro de América Latina: Hacia una región democrática, sostenible, próspera e incluyente (The Great Latin American Turn: Towards a democratic, sustainable, prosperous and inclusive region). Cali, Programa Editorial Universidad del Valle, 2021. 163 p.ECLAC Report. The Socio-Demographic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean, June 2022. 163 p. URL: https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/47922-impactos-sociodemograficos-la-pandemia-covid-19-america-latina-caribeElodie B., Parthenay K. Latin America and the Caribbean in the Crisis of Multilateralism. Les Études du CERI. Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (Opalc) of CERI-Sciences Po, Paris, France, 2021, no. 252-253, pp. 13-18.Feldmann A., Mantilla J. Criminal Governance in Latin America. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2021. URL: https://oxfordre.com/criminology/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.001.0001/acrefore-9780190264079-e-697Foa R.S., Klassen A., Slade M., Rand A., Collins R. The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020. Cambridge, Centre for the Future of Democracy, 2020. 56 p.Hartlyn J., Valenzuela A. Democracy in Latin America Since 1930. Bethell L., ed. The Cambridge History of Latin America VI. Politics and Society. New York, Cambridge University Press, 1994, pp. 99-162.Hernández H. Homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean: Magnitude and Associated Factors. Notas de Población, 2021, July-December, t. XLVIII, no. 113, pp. 119-144.Informe Latinobarómetro 2023: La recesión democrática de América Latina. Corporación Latinobarómetro. 49 p. URL: https://www.latinobarometro.org/lat.jspInsight Report in Figures. Insight Crime, June, 2023. URL: https://es.insightcrime.org/noticias/insight-cifras-zonas-criticas-homicidios-america-latina/Krauze E. El pueblo soy yo. Mexico, Debate, 2018. 296 p.Latin America Struggles with a New Wave of Criminality. International Crisis Group, May 2023. URL: https://www.crisisgroup.org/es/latin-america-caribbean/latin-america-wrestles-new-crime-waveMainwaring S., Pérez-Liñán A. Democratic Decay in Mexico and Latin America. Korpus 21, 2023, vol. III, no. 9, September-December, pp. 445-460.Malamud A. Is Democracy Dying. Nueva Sociedad Magazine, 2019, July-August, no. 282, pp. 30-42.Malamud C., Núñez R. La crisis de la democracia en América Latina, 2019-2021. Real Instituto Elcano, 2021. 12 p. URL: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ari88-2021-malamud-nunez-la-crisis-de-la-democracia-en-america-latina-2019-2021.pdfMartínez Lillo P., Rubio P. America Latina actual. Del populismo al giro de las izquierdas. Madrid, Los libros de la Catarata, 2017. 144 p.Martínez Lillo P., Castro Arcos J. En torno al Orden Internacional del siglo XXI. Alcores: revista de historia contemporánea, 2020, no. 24, pp. 43-64.Mazzina C., Bavastro R. América Latina: entre la democracia, la autocracia y el fin del consenso democrático. Buenos Aires, Teseo, 2020. 641 p.Morlino L. Democracias y democratizaciones. Madrid, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 2009. 252 p. (Colección Monografías, no. 267)OHCHR Report. June 2018. Human Rights Violations in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela: A Downward Spiral That Seems to Have No End. OHCHR. 61 p. URL: https://www.ohchr.org/es/documents/country-reports/human-rights-violations-bolivarian-republic-venezuela-downward-spiral-noPereyra G. México: violencia criminal y "guerra contra el narcotráfico". Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 2012, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 429-460.Pérez-Liñán A. Will Democracy Survive the 21st Century? Revista Nueva Sociedad, 2017, January-February, no. 267. 82 p.Pirker K., Álvarez M. The Revitalization of the Authoritarian Right: Europe, United States, Latin America. Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals, 2022, December, no. 132, pp. 7-23.Report Governance, Democracy and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) and by the United Nations Development Programme, UNDP-IDEA, 2022, May. 55 p. URL: https://www.undp.org/es/latin-america/publications/gobernanza-democracia-y-desarrollo-en-america-latina-y-el-caribeSahd J., Zovatto D., Rojas D. Political Risk Latin America 2023. Santiago, Centro de Estudios Internacionales de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CEIUC), 2023. 43 p.Sampó C., Troncoso V., eds. El Crimen Organizado en América Latina: Manifestaciones, Facilitadores y reacciones. Madrid, Instituto Universitario Gutiérrez Mellado, 2017. 376 p.Talvi E., Martínez J.P. Is Latin America a Political "Disaster"? An Alternative Approach. Real Instituto Elcano, 2023. 17 p. URL: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/es-america-latina-un-desastre-politico-un-enfoque-alternativo/Talvi E., Fiorito A., Ruiz J. Is Latin America an Economic Failure? From the Story to the Data. Real Instituto Elcano, 2023. 41 p. URL: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ari69-2023-fiorito-et-al-america-latina-es-un-fracaso-economico-del-relato-a-los-datos.pdfUNODC World Drugs Report, June 2023. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). URL: https://www.unodc.org/res/WDR-2023/WDR23_Exsum_fin_DP.pdfUribe P. Crime in Latin America: Disorder, Fragmentation and Transnationality. Real Instituto Elcano, 2021. 7 p. URL: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/el-crimen-en-america-latina-desorden-fragmentacion-y-transnacionalidad/Ziblatt D., Levitsky S. How Democracies Die. Barcelona, Ariel, 2018. 335 p.Zovatto D. El estado de las democracias en América Latina a casi cuatro décadas del inicio de la tercera ola democrática. Revista Derecho Electoral, primer semestre 2018, no. 25, p. 2-24.Acemoglu D., Robinson J. Por Qué Fracasan Los Países: los Orígenes del Poder, la Prosperidad y la Pobreza. Barcelona, Ediciones Deusto, Grupo Planeta, 2012. 528 p.Albarracín J. Crimen organizado en América Latina. Bogotá, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), 2023. 22 p.Bartolomé M. Terrorism and Organized Crime in South America. Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE) Research Paper, 2019. 52 p. URL: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_investig/2019/DIEEEINV022019TerrorismoSudamerica.pdfBitar S., Máttar J., Medina J. El Gran Giro de América Latina: Hacia una región democrática, sostenible, próspera e incluyente (The Great Latin American Turn: Towards a democratic, sustainable, prosperous and inclusive region). Cali, Programa Editorial Universidad del Valle, 2021. 163 p.ECLAC Report. The Socio-Demographic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean, June 2022. 163 p. URL: https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/47922-impactos-sociodemograficos-la-pandemia-covid-19-america-latina-caribeElodie B., Parthenay K. Latin America and the Caribbean in the Crisis of Multilateralism. Les Études du CERI. Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (Opalc) of CERI-Sciences Po, Paris, France, 2021, no. 252-253, pp. 13-18.Feldmann A., Mantilla J. Criminal Governance in Latin America. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2021. URL: https://oxfordre.com/criminology/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.001.0001/acrefore-9780190264079-e-697Foa R.S., Klassen A., Slade M., Rand A., Collins R. The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020. Cambridge, Centre for the Future of Democracy, 2020. 56 p.Hartlyn J., Valenzuela A. Democracy in Latin America Since 1930. Bethell L., ed. The Cambridge History of Latin America VI. Politics and Society. New York, Cambridge University Press, 1994, pp. 99-162.Hernández H. Homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean: Magnitude and Associated Factors. Notas de Población, 2021, July-December, t. XLVIII, no. 113, pp. 119-144.Informe Latinobarómetro 2023: La recesión democrática de América Latina. Corporación Latinobarómetro. 49 p. URL: https://www.latinobarometro.org/lat.jspInsight Report in Figures. Insight Crime, June, 2023. URL: https://es.insightcrime.org/noticias/insight-cifras-zonas-criticas-homicidios-america-latina/Krauze E. El pueblo soy yo. Mexico, Debate, 2018. 296 p.Latin America Struggles with a New Wave of Criminality. International Crisis Group, May 2023. URL: https://www.crisisgroup.org/es/latin-america-caribbean/latin-america-wrestles-new-crime-waveMainwaring S., Pérez-Liñán A. Democratic Decay in Mexico and Latin America. Korpus 21, 2023, vol. III, no. 9, September-December, pp. 445-460.Malamud A. Is Democracy Dying. Nueva Sociedad Magazine, 2019, July-August, no. 282, pp. 30-42.Malamud C., Núñez R. La crisis de la democracia en América Latina, 2019-2021. Real Instituto Elcano, 2021. 12 p. URL: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ari88-2021-malamud-nunez-la-crisis-de-la-democracia-en-america-latina-2019-2021.pdfMartínez Lillo P., Rubio P. America Latina actual. Del populismo al giro de las izquierdas. Madrid, Los libros de la Catarata, 2017. 144 p.Martínez Lillo P., Castro Arcos J. En torno al Orden Internacional del siglo XXI. Alcores: revista de historia contemporánea, 2020, no. 24, pp. 43-64.Mazzina C., Bavastro R. América Latina: entre la democracia, la autocracia y el fin del consenso democrático. Buenos Aires, Teseo, 2020. 641 p.Morlino L. Democracias y democratizaciones. Madrid, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 2009. 252 p. (Colección Monografías, no. 267)OHCHR Report. June 2018. Human Rights Violations in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela: A Downward Spiral That Seems to Have No End. OHCHR. 61 p. URL: https://www.ohchr.org/es/documents/country-reports/human-rights-violations-bolivarian-republic-venezuela-downward-spiral-noPereyra G. México: violencia criminal y "guerra contra el narcotráfico". Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 2012, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 429-460.Pérez-Liñán A. Will Democracy Survive the 21st Century? Revista Nueva Sociedad, 2017, January-February, no. 267. 82 p.Pirker K., Álvarez M. The Revitalization of the Authoritarian Right: Europe, United States, Latin America. Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals, 2022, December, no. 132, pp. 7-23.Report Governance, Democracy and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) and by the United Nations Development Programme, UNDP-IDEA, 2022, May. 55 p. URL: https://www.undp.org/es/latin-america/publications/gobernanza-democracia-y-desarrollo-en-america-latina-y-el-caribeSahd J., Zovatto D., Rojas D. Political Risk Latin America 2023. Santiago, Centro de Estudios Internacionales de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CEIUC), 2023. 43 p.Sampó C., Troncoso V., eds. El Crimen Organizado en América Latina: Manifestaciones, Facilitadores y reacciones. Madrid, Instituto Universitario Gutiérrez Mellado, 2017. 376 p.Talvi E., Martínez J.P. Is Latin America a Political "Disaster"? An Alternative Approach. Real Instituto Elcano, 2023. 17 p. URL: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/es-america-latina-un-desastre-politico-un-enfoque-alternativo/Talvi E., Fiorito A., Ruiz J. Is Latin America an Economic Failure? From the Story to the Data. Real Instituto Elcano, 2023. 41 p. URL: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ari69-2023-fiorito-et-al-america-latina-es-un-fracaso-economico-del-relato-a-los-datos.pdfUNODC World Drugs Report, June 2023. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). URL: https://www.unodc.org/res/WDR-2023/WDR23_Exsum_fin_DP.pdfUribe P. Crime in Latin America: Disorder, Fragmentation and Transnationality. Real Instituto Elcano, 2021. 7 p. URL: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/el-crimen-en-america-latina-desorden-fragmentacion-y-transnacionalidad/Ziblatt D., Levitsky S. How Democracies Die. Barcelona, Ariel, 2018. 335 p.Zovatto D. El estado de las democracias en América Latina a casi cuatro décadas del inicio de la tercera ola democrática. Revista Derecho Electoral, primer semestre 2018, no. 25, p. 2-24.